Risk Analysis of Welshaw Rice (Oryza Sativa L.) Farming Case Study in Waitonipa Village, North Seram, East Kobi District, Central Maluku Regency

Abstract

The research aims to (1) Determine the level of rice production and income and (2) What are the causes of farming risks in Waitonipa Village, Seram Utara Timur Kobi District (3) Assess production and income risk faced by rice farmers in the study area. A census sampling technique was applied, involving all 45 rice farmers, using a non-probability sampling approach. The study employed quantitative data analysis based on both primary and secondary data sources. Analytical tools included farm income analysis and risk analysis using the coefficient of variation (CV). The results indicate that the average rice production reached 1,836 kg per farming season, with an average selling price of IDR 6,853 per kilogram. The production risk analysis yielded a coefficient of variation of 90.90%, indicating a very high level of production risk. Meanwhile, income risk analysis showed an average income risk value of IDR 249,240, with a CV of 3.80%, suggesting a high level of income risk during the first planting season of 2025. These findings highlight the vulnerability of lowland rice farming to production variability and income uncertainty, emphasizing the need for improved risk management strategies to enhance farm stability and sustainability